SOUTH BAY DIGS | Digital Edition Online

30 DIGS.NET | 10.18.2019 The 5 stages are: Innovation Trigger Early proof-of-concept stories and media buzz trigger significant publicity over a potential technology breakthrough. Commercial viability is unproven at this stage. For marketers this is the "shiny new object" phase. It's also where FOMO kicks-in, as brands don't want to miss out on the next great marketing technology, application, social or online media tactic. Peak of Inflated Expectations Early publicity produces a number of success stories – often accompanied by lots of failures. Some companies take action, but many do not. As FOMO propels market expectations to new heights, this stage is when marketing optimism and imagination outpace reality as hype starts to peak and create inflated expectations. Trough of Disillusionment Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. For marketers this is when reality sets in and "shiny new objects" lose their shine. It's when inflated expectations begin to die down and brands start losing hope, trust, and faith in the new technology. Slope of Enlightenment More examples of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystalize and become more widely understood. Second and third generation products appear from technology providers. Gradually, the continued progression and advancements of the technology is validated and reaches its use case. Market adoption and acceptance are on the rise. The birth of viral marketing. The digital revolution has spawned many a marketing buzzard and claims of game changing marketing innovations – one of which is viral marketing. But, did you know that viral marketing was invented over 460 years ago? That's right. The year was 1559, when Swiss naturalist Conrad Gessner began praising the virtues and beauties of the tulip – a flower then not well known in Europe. Conrad's persistent remarks and musings eventually created what's known as "Tulip mania," a period of time when tulips went "viral," and some bulbs sold for the current equivalent of several million dollars. Crazy things can happen when ideas spread and herd mentality sets in. The madness of crowds. In his 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," Charles MacKay wrote about the delusionary nature of crowd psychology. The tulip mania of the early 17th century was one such example of crowd psychology. MacKay stated, "We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one subject and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run it till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first." Perhaps fittingly, the madness of crowds is pervasive in today's digitally connected world. A byproduct is often described as "FOMO" – or fear of missing out. The marketing buzzards know it well and will capitalize on this whenever the opportunity presents. It also speaks to the lizard brain. The Gartner Hype Cycle. Irrational exuberance plays a major role in why people fail to accurately predict the future success of emerging technologies and innovations. People tend to overestimate technology's abilities in the short-term, and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term. The Gartner Hype Cycle is a methodology and graphical illustration on how a technology or application will evolve and be adopted over time. It was designed to interpret technology hype in five stages and is used by companies to evaluate risk in emerging technology. For me, the hype cycle has profound implications for marketing – it's especially relevant today as brands fight for precious and scarce consumer attention. Tulip Mania. P U B L I S H E R ' S M U S E Plateau of Productivity Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. This is the pay-off stage for brands as the technology, market acceptance and adoption matures, entering a new plateau. For brands, the repetition and frequency of their marketing had developed mindshare and resulted in increased market share. But the game isn't over yet. It's also the point that the technology becomes the status quo, just waiting to be disrupted as it previously was before. Don't believe the hype. The problem with the hype cycle is that 90% of the time, new technology/brand "triggers" are widely and largely ignored out of the gate. Our new age of digital connectivity, access and distribution has created a bottomless ocean of noise, and every new technology, brand, entrepreneur, and marketing prophet is vying for market attention. The result, most of us never reach a trigger point to even begin a hype cycle, so the curve doesn't really apply. Brands - don't buy into the marketing buzzard's hype cycle and promises of virality. If you're looking to trigger a hype cycle, you'll be beholden to short-term thinking, chasing shiny new objects and useless tactics that will only destroy goodwill in the near-term and prevent any creation of value in the long-term. Breakthroughs and virality don't just happen overnight or ever at all. In fact, just about every innovation out there has to make it through the long and treacherous walk through the desert, where brands and entrepreneurs can spend years or decades being ignored before triggering a hype cycle. And don't forget, the ultimate marketing outcome is that your brand is sought out versus being found. Your path through the desert will embolden you, crystalize your vision, and clarify your purpose – to delight, improve, and enhance the lives of your customers. Until next time ~ Warren J Dow | Publisher wdow@Southbaydigs.com | 310.373.0142

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